Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank updated their GDP forecasts for India, and we see a familiar pattern. Both have slightly raised their growth estimates for this financial year (FY26)—the IMF now predicts 6.6% growth (up from 6.4%), and the World Bank sees 6.5% (up from 6.3%).
The IMF cut its estimate for FY27 to 6.2%, and the World Bank sees it at 6.3% (down from 6.5%). The reasons given are global issues, like increased US tariffs on Indian imports, protectionism, and a general global slowdown.
But India’s situation differs from these cautious predictions. Looking back at the last three financial years, these international organizations have consistently underestimated India’s ability to bounce back economically.
For example, in FY23, the IMF projected 6.8% and the World Bank 6.9%, while India’s actual GDP growth was 7.2%. In FY24, the actual growth was 7.6%, much higher than predicted. These aren’t minor errors; they suggest a deeper problem in how global institutions assess India’s growth.
Of course, economic forecasts aren’t perfect; they’re predictions, but, are they making the right assumptions about India? The recent IMF report says that the lowered FY27 forecast is due to increased US tariffs. But this assumes a simple cause-and-result between global trade problems and India’s growth, which isn’t always the case.
In fact, in 2024, both the World Bank and IMF had estimated India’s growth to be around 6.3% and 6.1% respectively, but the actual growth turned out to be 7.6%—once again, significantly higher. With inflation now largely under control, the room it creates for potential interest rate cuts could further boost economic activity. And since this is a more recent development, one wonders how much of its impact has actually been factored into the current estimates by both institutions.
These global projections seem to miss India’s internal economic strength, which has repeatedly proven stronger than expected. The Indian government’s investment in infrastructure, railways, and road construction has an impact across different areas.
The use of digital services, financial inclusion through platforms like UPI, and stable economic signs like low inflation and better tax collection have all resulted in steady growth. The private sector is also recovering, with positive bank credit growth, manufacturing output, and services PMI.
India’s growth isn’t based on exports or commodities. Instead, it relies on internal demand, entrepreneurship, and long-term changes, like GST, IBC, and PLI schemes. When organizations like the IMF or World Bank don’t fully consider these factors, their forecasts are inaccurate.
The IMF has also adjusted its financial calculations for India, including off-budget food subsidies. These updates show how global organizations must constantly adjust their understanding of India’s economic situation.
So, should we rely on these external forecasts when they’ve been wrong before? Maybe we should see them as just one opinion, not the only one. These organizations provide a global view, but the real situation in India is more complex and optimistic than their numbers suggest.
The Indian economy has often shown that it can handle global problems. Whether it’s the COVID-19 pandemic, oil issues, or tariff increases, India has recovered and often done better than expected. This is because of a culture of economic flexibility, community resilience, and a governing system that’s adapting to meet challenges.
India helps keep the world stable. Our economic path doesn’t always follow standard rules, and that’s a strength. We have our own way of building growth, shaped by trade, innovation, and cultural resilience. Our reform goals, whether it’s digital infrastructure, rural development, or manufacturing incentives, might not align with Western models, but they’re based on what works for India.
As global organizations update their projections, remember that India’s growth story is being written here, not in other countries. Our economy moves with intent, confidence, and the belief that we’re moving forward.
It might be time for the world to understand India, not just through data models, but through real understanding.
