India’s economy shows resilient first quarter growth despite global energy concerns and geopolitical tensions. However, the impact of the West Asia crisis may unfold in the second quarter depending on how quickly supply chains stabilise.
The upward revision of the growth estimate follows the incorporation of economic data for the fourth quarter of the financial year, which was unavailable when the Second Advance Estimates were released in February.
The release of the revamped series, with 2022-23 as the new base year, is therefore far more than a routine update. It is a necessary overhaul of our data infrastructure - an effort to ensure the numbers we track truly reflect the ground reality of a changed economy
The IMF has trimmed its global growth projection for 2026 to 3.1% citing war-driven oil disruptions in West Asia, but India’s economy is expected to grow 6.5% on the back of strong domestic performance and reduced US tariffs.
India is now the world’s 3rd-largest quick commerce market and the only major economy above pre-Covid growth trends, outpacing the US, Europe and China.
The consumption boom financed through tax cuts is evident in the rise of disposable incomes, business profitability, compliance, and formalization, rural demand revival, and investment activity.