India’s latest GDP numbers have created a rather interesting problem. The economy has grown by 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2026, beating expectations and making India one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. And now, even the International Monetary Fund has broadly backed the number.
But apparently, some naraz phupha are still not convinced.
The IMF’s Julie Kozack said India’s 7.8 per cent growth was higher than the IMF staff’s expectations as well as the consensus among other observers. She attributed the upside surprise primarily to stronger-than-expected activity in services and exports. More importantly, she said the performance demonstrated the resilience of the Indian economy despite the energy price shock. The IMF continues to describe India as a key engine of global growth.
The IMF has also welcomed India’s efforts to modernise its statistical framework. The latest GDP series incorporates a new Index of Industrial Production and a new Producer Price Index, which the Fund says should help improve the accuracy of GDP estimates.
Yet the naraz phupha remain angry.
First, the argument was that the GDP number itself could not be trusted. Then came the argument that the methodology had been changed. Then came the argument that the previous year’s numbers had been revised. And when those arguments were answered, the goalposts appeared to move again.
Of course, questioning government data is perfectly legitimate. GDP numbers should always be examined, methodologies should be transparent and independent economists should be encouraged to scrutinise official statistics. Nobody is saying criticism should stop.
But there is a difference between scrutiny and automatic disbelief.
If the IMF itself says the latest growth outcome exceeded its expectations, identifies services and exports as the major drivers and acknowledges improvements in India’s statistical framework, perhaps the perpetual pessimism deserves a little scrutiny too.
India’s 7.8 per cent growth does not mean every economic problem has disappeared. Jobs, productivity, private investment, inflation and the quality of growth remain legitimate areas of debate. Even the IMF has cautioned that India must continue reforms to sustain high growth.
But surely we can celebrate good news without pretending that criticism is a patriotic duty.
So, IMF tak ne bol diya. Data experts can debate it. Economists can analyse it. The government can take a victory lap.
And the naraz phupha?
Well, naraz phupha toh naraz hi rahenge.
Maybe 7.8 per cent growth is not the problem. Maybe their problem is that India is growing despite their predictions.
