Germany has just witnessed a political earthquake, and it did not come from Berlin. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 43.8% of the vote in Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt state election, winning 39 of the 83 seats and becoming the strongest political force in the state. It fell short of an outright majority, but the result is nevertheless historic. Never since the Second World War has a right-wing party come this close to controlling a German state government, it shows that the German people are getting fed up with the current government.
The message for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Germany’s established political parties is difficult to ignore. The Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) collapsed to just 17.2%, while voter turnout was as high as 77.8%. This was not simply a protest by a handful of people; it reflected public frustration with the country’s political establishment, particularly over immigration, the economy, and the performance of the federal government led by the CDU.
For Germany, the immediate challenge is political paralysis. The AfD does not have enough seats to govern alone, while mainstream parties continue to maintain a so-called “firewall” against cooperation with it. Yet the larger the AfD becomes, the harder it will be to maintain that firewall without leaving millions of voters feeling politically unrepresented. The pressure will particularly fall on Merz’s CDU, which must decide whether to compete more aggressively with the AfD on immigration and national identity without legitimising the party itself.
The implications of this result extend far beyond Germany.
Germany is Europe’s largest economy and one of the EU’s most influential political powers. A stronger AfD could push Berlin towards tougher migration policies, a more nationalist approach to European integration and a reassessment of Germany’s support for Ukraine. The party is also apparently more Russia-friendly than Germany’s mainstream parties.
That is what will make neighbouring countries nervous. Poland, in particular, views any weakening of Germany’s commitment to Ukraine and European security with concern. Meanwhile, Europe’s populist right has welcomed the AfD victory as proof that voters are moving away from traditional parties.
The bigger story, therefore, is not merely that the AfD won one German state. It is that Germany’s political centre is losing voters, and Europe’s political centre is watching nervously.
If the trend continues, the 2029 German federal election could become far more consequential than anyone in Berlin would like to admit.
