Kerala will be an interesting state to watch out for in the upcoming months. A churn in Kerala politics at ground level is on, and the coastal state could be heading for some unpredictable electoral outcomes in the assembly elections due early next year.
Both LDF & UDF have already sensed what was in the waiting as both blocs are witnessing a shift of their voters towards BJP, seen a rising sun in this southern state.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s frequent visits to Kerala are a part of BJP’s outreach to Keralites for a possible rise to the party’s electoral fortunes in this southern coastal state that has eluded the saffron party in the past.
Kerala has a history of bipolar politics with Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and United Democratic Front (UDF) led by Congress as two major political groups. They have ruled the state for decades because the general socio-political thought and behaviour of the Keralite populace leans significantly either toward left-wing and center-left groups.The two alliances have alternately been elected to power since 1980, and the state is currently headed by the LDF government with Pinarayi Vijayan as the Chief Minister.
BJP in recent past has tried to make forays into Kerala positioning itself as a third force and with every election in the state, the party has strengthened itself as a formidable political bloc. Though it has started getting succuss in lok sabha elections, but is yet to convert this popular support into assembly seats.
Its focus Kerala now for BJP, which now intends to convert this rising mass support in terms of assembly seats. Wins in Kerala will be an added bonus for BJP and breach in the last Left citadel of the country.
And the LDF too is feeling the heat. It was least expected from the Leftist government to organise a Global Ayyapaa meet. Kerala CM and top LDF leader Pinrayi Vijayan seems to have understood that a section of Hindu votes has already shifted to the BJP, and arresting this shift was the need of the hour. The LDF had even invited Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath to the Ayyappa meet, something unimaginable from the LDF under normal circumstances.
On the other hand, Congress is very much eyeing Kerala. It aims to unseat the LDF from power. But it too is facing trouble none other than the BJP. The reason Congress’s core vote bank includes Christians & Muslims. But again a section of Christians votes shifted towards BJP in the recent Lok Sabha elections. The reason these Christians see radical Islam as a threat to their very existence. So, Congress these days is busy finding out issues that portray BJP as anti-Christian in order to check this shift. The raking up of the nun issue in BJP ruled Chhattisgarh was an effort in the same direction.
Ever since the 2019 general elections, BJP has continued to widen its support base among Christians voters. The addition has been the merger of Kerala Janapaksham (Secular) led by Alappuzha Veteran politician PC George into BJP. Induction of Anil Anthony, son of former defence minister and senior Congress leader AK Antony and Tom Vaddakan has ensured BJP’s inroads into Christian community, who make up over one in five of the population and include Roman Catholics, Syrian Orthodox, and members of other Protestant groups.
The Lok Sabha elections 2024 outcome came as a shot in the arm for the saffron party. BJP got its first MP from Kerala when party leader Suresh Gopi won convincingly from the Thrissur parliamentary constituency. Even the BJP-led NDA’s vote share in Kerala for the first time touched nearly 20 per cent in the 2024 general elections. BJP candidates also performed exceptionally well in several other Lok Sabha seats in the state. Rajeev Chandrashekhar himself contested from the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat & lost narrowly by a margin of about 16,000 votes to Congress’s Shashi Tharoor.
But what are the reasons as to a section of Christians getting inclined towards BJP. Professor TJ Joseph, Hagia Sophia, Series of protests in support of Hamas, The Kerala Story & the Munambam land row are certainly in the minds of Kerala Christians when they come out to vote in recent times.
For the first time, it is being evidently seen that some sections of Christians do not want to vote alongside Muslims and are looking for other options, and there are valid reasons behind this shift.
It all started with the chopping of the hand of Professor TJ Joseph by the banned PFI activist more than a decade back. The Prof was attacked when he along with his family was returning back from the church after Sunday morning mass. The incident hurt the Christians to the core, bringing the community into a confrontation with the Muslims.
Significantly, Prof TJ Joseph, whose hand was chopped off by members of the banned Islamist outfit Popular Front of India, also met PM Modi, during the latter’s January 24 visit, revealing the rising resentment among the Christian community against fanatical Islam and the community’s steady shift towards the BJP.
Further, the issue of the conversion of the ancient Hagia Sophia church in Turkey to a mosque has always been a point of discussion in Christian families in Kerala. After the recent coming up of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, a Christian think tank strongly believes in reclaiming of the Hagia Sophia Chruch on the lines of Ayodhya. Hagia Sophia issue continues to increase the loss of trust and subsequent distancing between the two religions.
The other issue to add on to the hostilities has been the screening of the movie – The Kerala Story by various Christian organisations that too with consent from church leadership. The movie prominently highlights the prevailing Love Jihad in Kerala. The latest to influence Christians in Kerala is the Munambam land row, where Christians being an affected party have strongly backed the BJP over the Waqf Amendment Bill
LDF on the other is worried about its Ezhava community votes, which has been gradually abandoning left. Even Nairs are having a rethink and are preferring BJP at several pockets in Kerala. If Congress Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha MP Shashi Tharoor has been frequently giving statements in favour of PM Modi-led centre, a wise politician like him certainly understands which way the winds are blowing.
Any BJP success in forthcoming local bodies polls & the subseqent Assembly elections in Kerala could be the beginning of a new era of politics in a state that is most literate in the country and has the maximum percentage of minorities in terms of population.
